WE ARE AMERICANS.
Writing from Lima, Peru: HUGO AQUINO (*)
TRUMP FAILED TO PREVENT THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN.
Oil, rare earth elements, and weaponry are what matters to Trump.
DEMOCRACY will be conspicuous by its absence until January 20, 2029.
Emerging markets and Latin America have already been warned.
FORCE, NOT DIALOGUE, will guide global economic growth.
HELLO IMPERIALIST
Multilateralism is dead.
Bilateralism only survives with dictatorial peers.
WHO WINS, WHO LOSES?
In this Year of the Fire Horse, those tolerant of risk and market volatility will WIN.
Countries whose leaders abandon collective bargaining will LOSE.
RIGHT-WING SOUTH AMERICA
The year 2026 is a completely ELECTION-driven period in the most powerful economies of South America (Brazil, Peru, Colombia).
THE GOOD
South American stock markets will be strong between 2027 and 2028.
THE BAD
Peru will postpone the wave of second-generation reforms (Sedapal will remain under state management, and PetroPer煤 will lose its leading role in exploration investment but will be slowed down in marketing and refining).
THE UGLY
The world economy will grow by 2%, not 3.5% annually.
Europe will stagnate during the POTUS47 administration.
Asia will be the engine of the planet, led by India's economy (6% annually).
The Federal Reserve will lose respect in the United States, and inflation will be a major headache for Washington, D.C.
Latin America will grow by 1 to 1.5% annually, but in Peru, economic liberalism will be forgotten in the first 10 months of 2026.
(*) Economic Analyst Hugo Aquino is the current Director of Financial Peru.
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5 comentarios:
HOY D铆a de la M脡DICA en Estados Unidos de Am茅rica, en la plaza financiera de Lima el d贸lar cay贸 0,15% a 3,3620 Soles en un contexto dom茅stico donde el BCRP deja flotar libremente el Tipo de Cambio y a diferencia del mes de enero el banco central BCRP NO HA COMPRADO NING脷N D脫LAR V脥A LA MESA DE NEGOCIACI脫N, te recuerdo que en lo que va del a帽o el BCRP compr贸 3884 millones de d贸lares con un promedio diario de compras de 169 millones de d贸lares por jornada h谩bil.
HOY en el D铆a Mundial contra el c谩ncer, en Lima el d贸lar oficial cerr贸 sin modificaci贸n a 3,3620 Soles similar cotizaci贸n ocurri贸 en el mercado burs谩til peruano donde en la v铆spera la Bolsa de Valores de Lima trep贸 casi 5% y acumul贸 una RENTABILIDAD en d贸lares de 28%
En un contexto mundial donde la ola vendedora super贸 holgadamente a la ola compradora especialmente en Jap贸n, Hong Kong, Alemania y las plazas burs谩tiles Nasdaq 100 y SP500, en Lima el euro baj贸 pasando de 3,9730 Soles a 3,9670 Soles.
A 48 horas de la versi贸n LX SuperBowl el d贸lar oficial abri贸 y cerr贸 en baja 0,24% a 3,3590 Soles por su parte el euro cay贸 0,08% a 3,9700 Soles versus los 3,9730 Soles del jueves negro a escala mundial.
Durante la primera semana del mes del AMOR, el d贸lar oficial en Lima perdi贸 0,33% a 3,3590 Soles versus los 3,37 Soles de enero
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