DONALD TRUMP "THE JOKING" WILL
POTUS48 ON JANUARY 2029?
China is calm and confident.
China is not afraid.
Hugo Aquino Quinto writes from Lima, PERU \(*)
The Central Bank of Peru is now calling the tariff dispute between the two largest economies on the planet a trade war.
China's Xi Jinping is not afraid of Donald Trump.
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE RED
Economists from banks and companies in the real-sector economy predict that China's GDP will barely increase 4% annually.
We must say goodbye to productive expansion of 4.5%, 5%, 6%, or the wonderful 12% of a quarter of a century ago.
Watch out, Peru. Copper will suffer with China's sluggish economic growth. It is recommended that the fiscal deficit be -1% or at most -2% annually in 2025 and 2026.
URGENT TASK
For the third consecutive time, Brazil raised the Base Rate.
Today, the reference interest rate is at 14.25%, infuriating President Lula.
The incumbent president of Latin America's largest economy has a popularity that will fall rapidly in 2025.
With Brazil unstable and volatile, capital investment risks being conspicuous by its absence in the midst of a trade war.
CHINA VS. THE USA
Peru must defend the FTA signed in 2008 with the United States.
But, in the midst of an election season in Ecuador, Argentina, Chile, and Peru, private sector capital will be on hold until 2027.
China and its vast capacity for infrastructure investment is the inevitable path that Latin American economies will have to reluctantly accept. Peru will need a team of highly qualified economists in international business to avoid making the mistake of being a country that says YES to every investment project from the two-faced China: capitalist on the outside; statist on the inside.
(*) Economic Analyst Hugo Aquino Quinto is director of 'Economía MÍA'.
SOCIAL MEDIA:
TELEGRAM
@economiamia
@limaflash
X
@AQUINOECONOMIA
SPOTIFY
www.spotify.com/economiamia
www.spotify.com/Aquino_music
TIKTOK
@aquinoeconomia
