Economy PERU indicators TODAY

PRINCIPALES INDICADORES ECONÓMICOS 

Agosto 2025 versus Diciembre 2024

(% anual)

Crecimiento Económico 

(∆ % anual PBI)

3,40%

3,30%

Crecimiento Económico Potencial del Perú

(% anual PBI)

3,50% 

3,70%

Inflación 

(% anual IPC Lima) 

1,69%

1,97%

Reservas Internacionales Netas 

(RIN millones de dólares)

87095

78987

Desempleo Abierto 

(% anual)

5,60%

6,00%

Tipo de Cambio 

(Soles por US$)

3,5350 Soles

3,7610 Soles 

Base Monetaria 

Emisión Primaria 

(% anual)

7,10%

9,20%

Rentabilidad Bolsa de Valores de Lima 

(Yield %)

25,21%

12,56%

Déficit Fiscal 

(% PBI)

2,60% anual 

3,50% anual 

Riesgo País Perú 

(Puntos básicos, pbs)

144 pbs 

157 pbs 

0 PERCENT FOR DINA

DINA ENDS FAILED

 DINA WASTED HER LAST MESSAGE TO THE NATION.

4 HOURS AND 12 MINUTES OF TORTURE. 

Written from Peru by: HUGO AQUINO (*)

THE GOOD: 

The monetary sector, whose management is the exclusive responsibility of the BCRP. Net International Reserves equivalent to 27% of GDP; Peru's Country Risk of 142 basis points and a robust Peruvian currency stabilized between 3,5000 Soles and 3,546 Soles since May 2000 and Tuesday, July 29, 2025 are achievements of good corporate governance by the seven directors of the Central Bank, headed by Julio Emilio Velarde. 

THE BAD: 

The fiscal deficit today is equivalent to -2.60% of GDP. For the third consecutive year (i.e., during DINA's entire administration), fiscal discipline was breached.

 THE UGLY: 

Dina Boluarte had the opportunity to become the first woman to serve as President of the Republic of Peru. However, the lawyer born in Chalhuanca, Apurímac, in the southern mountains of Peru, 900 kilometers from Lima, ended her term with a 2% popularity rating and the disapproval of 97% of Peruvians. 

Dina Boluarte Zegarra tarnished the immaculate image of our daughters and granddaughters and ensured that in the next 15 years (three consecutive presidential terms), Peruvian women will be ruled out from ever again occupying the Presidency of Peru. 

Dina Boluarte Zegarra will go down in world history as the president of a democratic country with the worst government approval rating in 204 years in Peru and the entire planet.

 Official source: 

BCRP, INEI, BVL, MEF, Bloomberg, Investment. 

Prepared by: @AQUINOECONOMIA

(*) Hugo Aquino Quinto is director of LimaFlash . 

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GOLD THE WINNER

THE 💯 DAYS OF POTUS47 

DONALD TRUMP "THE JOKING" WILL

POTUS48 ON JANUARY 2029?

China is calm and confident.

 China is not afraid. 

Hugo Aquino Quinto writes from Lima, PERU \(*)

The Central Bank of Peru is now calling the tariff dispute between the two largest economies on the planet a trade war. 

China's Xi Jinping is not afraid of Donald Trump. 

ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE RED

 Economists from banks and companies in the real-sector economy predict that China's GDP will barely increase 4% annually. 

We must say goodbye to productive expansion of 4.5%, 5%, 6%, or the wonderful 12% of a quarter of a century ago.

 Watch out, Peru. Copper will suffer with China's sluggish economic growth. It is recommended that the fiscal deficit be -1% or at most -2% annually in 2025 and 2026.

 

URGENT TASK

For the third consecutive time, Brazil raised the Base Rate. 

Today, the reference interest rate is at 14.25%, infuriating President Lula.  

The incumbent president of Latin America's largest economy has a popularity that will fall rapidly in 2025.

 With Brazil unstable and volatile, capital investment risks being conspicuous by its absence in the midst of a trade war.

CHINA VS. THE USA

 

 Peru must defend the FTA signed in 2008 with the United States. 

But, in the midst of an election season in Ecuador, Argentina, Chile, and Peru, private sector capital will be on hold until 2027. 

China and its vast capacity for infrastructure investment is the inevitable path that Latin American economies will have to reluctantly accept. Peru will need a team of highly qualified economists in international business to avoid making the mistake of being a country that says YES to every investment project from the two-faced China: capitalist on the outside; statist on the inside.

(*) Economic Analyst Hugo Aquino Quinto is director of 'Economía MÍA'.

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WASHINGTON D.C. vs. THE WORLD

TARIFFS=INFLATION + STAGNATION

Writes from LIMA, PERU: Hugo Aquino Quinto 🇵🇪 (*)

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NOISE AND FIGHTS

Inflation and stagnation are what is seen on the economic horizon.

 PRODUCTION 

The world GDP will no longer grow 4 percent. 

POTUS47 did the magic of cooling international trade with shouts and threats. 

The tariff is his most beautiful word. Donald forgot the economic lessons received at the Wharton School.

 POTUS47's advanced age is not synonymous with experience and giving love or service. 

Donald distributes revenge and automatic business day and night.

 ALERT THROUGHOUT 

Latin America is not on POTUS47's 2025 agenda.

Argentina will pay with more inflation and recession for its hatred of neighboring 'left-wing' countries.

 PERU MOVED 

The electoral stage cools economic growth by 1 point of GDP. 

The MEF, Ministry of Economy, falls short by projecting a reactivation of 4 percent. 

 All Peruvians must add energy for a 6 percent economic growth in the current Year of the Snake.

2025 is a roller coaster. 

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 (*) Hugo Aquino Quinto is head of ECONOMIC ANALYSTS since 1990. Director of 'EconomíaMía'. Interviewer at 'SaludPERU'.

POTUS47 AT WAR

3 years of disputes with Putin

Write from Lima; PERU: 

Hugo Aquino Quinto  (*)

+ No politics day in the United States. + National leadership day.

In 2025, the international front is on red light

EMERGING COUNTRIES

Peru will successfully withstand international blows. 

Thanks to its team of economists at the BCRP, inflation will be at the midpoint of the target range.

 That is, 2% per year. 

Economic growth will slow down by 1 point and GDP will end up rising 2% to 2,50% annually. 

FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES

The backward countries of Latin America will endure harsh shocks in remittances and recession with inflation.

Developed countries such as the United States, Canada, South Korea, Australia and the United Kingdom (and the entire Eurozone) will end the year 2025 with rising inflation and falling GDP.

DATA SOURCE: 

MEF

BCRP

OECD

IMF

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(*) Hugo Aquino Quinto is Economic Analyst global. Hugo Aquino Quinto is Director of 'LIMAFlash'

ECONOMIC WAR ON THE WORLD

IN THE DOLLAR...BROTHERS!

* Washington D.C. and Lima have the same time today (GMT-5; UTC-5).

* 140 men and women deported from the United States of America arrived in Peru.

Write from Lima:

Hugo Aquino Quinto (*)

IN THE 'DOLLAR' BROTHERS

 Financial opening on February 7, 1 week from Valentine's Day, Donald completes 19 days in government. The dollar opened 0.08% lower, trading at 3.7135 Soles. Between 09:05 AM and 10:00 AM it traded at 3.7140 Soles. At the close of the morning (11:35 AM) the dollar ended at 3.715 Soles.

 The worst moment for the greenback occurred at 10:30 in the morning when it touched the floor of 3.710 Soles.

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The Economist enfatiza que la Economía de Perú no tiene sostenibilidad en el largo plazo conviviendo con una Política explosivamente perturbadora de la inversión.

¡Prosperidad Plena en el Año 2014! te desea

Financial CAPITAL.

LA ECONOMÍA ES MÁS FÁCIL con Financial CAPITAL.

Al finalizar la primera mitad de la sesión bursátil en Perú, el principal indicador de la marcha del mercado de valores de Lima, el IGBVL, llegó al finalizar la primera parte de la  jornada bursátil del jueves 10 de abril de 2014 a los 14763,37 puntos con una ganancia de  1,31% impulsada especialmente por las acciones del sector Minería que avanzaron 2%. Este resultado estuvo en línea con Asia (excepto Tokio que cerró estancado); Londres (+ 0,10%); el oro (+0,76% a 1320,20 dólares por onza troy), la plata (+1,59% a 20,09 dólares por onza troy), y el cobre (+0,28% a 3,05 dólares por libra). 

A continuación, les presento un importante artículo sobre la viabilidad del modelo de crecimiento económico de Perú, en un escenario crónicamente complicado por las turbulencias en el frente político.

Peru’s Italian job

Economic success cannot indefinitely co-exist with political weakness.

When Bello reported on the latter years of Carlos Menem’s rule in Argentina, he would sometimes be enjoined to take no notice of the political scandals lapping around the regime. The important thing, he was told, was that the economy was run by responsible technocrats, as in “the Italian model” of the post-war decades. He heard something rather similar when Ollanta Humala was poised to win Peru’s presidency in 2011. Politics was a mess, a prominent banker confided, but what really mattered was that the economy was well managed.
Almost three years into Mr Humala’s presidency, both of those things remain true. But far from being a reassurance, Peru’s adherence to the Italian model is actually a cause for concern.


Mr Humala, a former army officer and a political chameleon, first ran for president in 2006 as a supporter of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. He lost that election and in 2011 reinvented himself as a pro-Brazilian social democrat. But after winning this race, he opted to stick with the free-market policies that have brought a decade of strong growth.
Miguel Castilla, the economy minister, is revered by private business. The most powerful member of the government, last year he beat back an ill-advised plan to nationalise the Peruvian operations of Repsol, a Spanish oil company. Although economic growth has slowed a little, Mr Castilla is confident that it will rise again to 6% or more for the next three years, thanks to big new mines and an ambitious programme of private-public infrastructure partnerships. On March 28th the government awarded a $6 billion contract to build a second metro line in Lima.


But politically Mr Humala has struggled. His approval rating has fallen to 25%, down from 54% a year ago, according to Ipsos, a pollster. He is on his fifth cabinet in less than three years. His makeshift coalition commands only 43 of the 130 seats in Congress, which last month twice voted to reject the latest team. That prompted a minor constitutional crisis. Only after Mario Vargas Llosa, Peru’s leading novelist and a Humala supporter, warned melodramatically that a power vacuum might open the way to a military coup did parliament give its approval.
In fact, the current cabinet is an improvement on its predecessors. It is stuffed with capable technocrats. The problem is that the president himself has failed to provide the government with political leadership. Mr Humala has been almost reclusive, leaving the talking to Mr Castilla as well as to the bright and ambitious first lady, Nadine Heredia. On security, the president prefers to work through army friends—a bad idea when radical reform of the police, the public prosecutor and the judiciary is needed.
Yet Peru’s political problem goes much deeper than Mr Humala. His two predecessors were similarly unpopular. Peruvians hold their politicians and Congress in contempt. It is not hard to understand why. Back in the 1980s economic collapse, hyperinflation and the terrorism of the Shining Path destroyed the country’s faith in its leaders. In the 1990s Alberto Fujimori stabilised the economy and crushed the Shining Path. But he was an elected autocrat who sent tanks to close Congress and undermined the party system. Almost 70% of Peruvians work in the informal sector: they feel that if they have prospered, it is through their own efforts, not because of the politicians.
The real lesson from Italy is that if the political system is unable to act in the long-term interest of the majority, it ends up contaminating the economy with its failures. Peru is a democracy without meaningful parties. A regional election in October is likely to repeat the last one, in which 23 of the 25 regional presidents were independents. Thanks to mining and gas royalties, they command a big chunk of public money. One important region, Áncash, has become a mafia mini-state. Ten political opponents of the regional president, César Álvarez, have been murdered after denouncing corruption. His critics accuse Mr Álvarez, who denies all wrongdoing, of having bought off prosecutors. This month Mr Humala froze Áncash’s bank accounts.
Mr Humala’s predecessors completed their terms despite their unpopularity (though they were better at building alliances than he is). But what will happen if Mr Castilla proves over-optimistic?
If the flow of money that has transformed Peru in the past two decades began to dry up, a discredited political system would be unable to buffer and channel public discontent. The risk then is that the parallel lines of economics and politics would converge—just as they have in Italy.

Fuente: The Economist. /  

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21600682-economic-success-cannot-indefinitely-co-exist-political-weakness-perus-italian-job

Elaboración: 

Financial CAPITAL.

 

A 28-member trade delegation from China is in Peru,

LA ECONOMÍA ES FÁCIL CON Financial PERU.

Peru seen as ideal partner for profitable 


business.

Peru has become the most interesting economy in the world and is the ideal partner for any country, organization or private company looking for business opportunities, said a spokesman for China Development Bank.
"We are pleasantly surprised by Peru's achievements in the economic sphere. There is no doubt that projections are very encouraging and we are willing to contribute to that progress," said Shiyuan Bian, Deputy Director-General at China Development Bank.
In an interview with official newspaper El Peruano, he said that China and Peru have a long and fruitful business relationship that allowed them to successfully weather the global financial crisis.
However, Shiyuan believes that these relations can be further strengthened with the existing free trade agreement between the two countries.
"China is the world's fastest-growing economy, while Peru is undoubtedly a leader of [economic] development in Latin America. There are reasonable grounds to continue to grow together, with increased trade and cooperation," he stated.
Shiyuan also noted the efforts made by the Peruvian government to reduce poverty levels.
"This hard work is already bearing fruit. President Ollanta Humala has been very emphatic about this and we believe that inclusion will be successful," he added.
A 28-member trade delegation from China is in Peru to evaluate the support provided to the Andean country in the implementation and financing of investment projects in the productive and infrastructure sectors.

Source: Andina Agency.

Elaboration: Financial PERU.