WE ARE AMERICANS.
Writing from Lima, Peru: HUGO AQUINO (*)
TRUMP FAILED TO PREVENT THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN.
Oil, rare earth elements, and weaponry are what matters to Trump.
DEMOCRACY will be conspicuous by its absence until January 20, 2029.
Emerging markets and Latin America have already been warned.
FORCE, NOT DIALOGUE, will guide global economic growth.
HELLO IMPERIALIST
Multilateralism is dead.
Bilateralism only survives with dictatorial peers.
WHO WINS, WHO LOSES?
In this Year of the Fire Horse, those tolerant of risk and market volatility will WIN.
Countries whose leaders abandon collective bargaining will LOSE.
RIGHT-WING SOUTH AMERICA
The year 2026 is a completely ELECTION-driven period in the most powerful economies of South America (Brazil, Peru, Colombia).
THE GOOD
South American stock markets will be strong between 2027 and 2028.
THE BAD
Peru will postpone the wave of second-generation reforms (Sedapal will remain under state management, and PetroPer煤 will lose its leading role in exploration investment but will be slowed down in marketing and refining).
THE UGLY
The world economy will grow by 2%, not 3.5% annually.
Europe will stagnate during the POTUS47 administration.
Asia will be the engine of the planet, led by India's economy (6% annually).
The Federal Reserve will lose respect in the United States, and inflation will be a major headache for Washington, D.C.
Latin America will grow by 1 to 1.5% annually, but in Peru, economic liberalism will be forgotten in the first 10 months of 2026.
(*) Economic Analyst Hugo Aquino is the current Director of Financial Peru.
SOCIAL MEDIA:
@AQUINOECONOMIA
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